Good Morning,


I just cannot believe that today marks the end of the third quarter for 2017.  It seems like just nine months ago we were celebrating the New Year!


Uh – ok.  Crickets.


So, listen – we spend far too much time focused on that is happening.  As anyone can recite, the problems seem to be endless.  Indeed, speaking in terms of pipeline and demand – if we did not have a bunch of garbage to worry about in the headlines, I am perfectly convinced we would create something.


But here is the better question:


“What isn’t happening?”


Think about it for a moment.  With all the focus on any number of risks – the Fed, rates, the market, a crash, N Korea, Brexit, hurricane destruction, DC problems, acrimony across the board on many fronts – the list continues to grow.


In the midst of all of that – this is the key:  the market is not selling off.


Choppy, internal churn, lots of noise and the usual (very expensive) knee-jerk reactions over earnings seasons – yes.


But no real sell-off.


No correction – even mild.


If one is watching the breadcrumbs – the trail is crystal clear.


The market is staying steady – choppy at worst.


The economy continues to expand.


The storms did not decimate the GDP – or even a region yet.


We are not being inundated with warnings of earnings misses due to storms


…and even the Chicago PMI just came out with huge numbers, well beyond estimates.

As we covered in recent notes, inflation continues to not raise its ugly head either – even as it flusters many, for all the wrong reasons:

Vanished Again


We noted the loss of bullish sentiment again even as the backdrop remains positive.  This chart helps some better than just a number.  Saying that only one-third of the audience is bullish on stocks does not provide as much impact as seeing a picture and how it relates to the past:

As I said yesterday, the contrarians of the world are still pinching themselves.  Note in the chart above how bullish the audience was back in 2011 or late 2014.  Far more so than they are today – at much lower prices.


Fear is the most expensive cost in market history.


In Summary


As we head into the beginning of Q4 – and the weekend – pray for a correction.  It would only take a week or two – maybe even a month.  At the end, no one would be bullish, and the world would keep on ticking.




I know – I don’t like being patient sometimes either.  Slow and steady still wins this race though my friend.  No way around that.


Demographics Rule The Long-Term Game


Planning is critical as always.


But we must stay focused on the right pitch and be confident that is remains very early in the game.


Long-term currents win over time – not short-term, emotional waves.


Have a good weekend and welcome to Q4….and again, consider for awhile what isn’t happening.


Until we see you again – may your journey be grand and your legacy significant.